MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc8e8ed4093cf057f190fe666c1c4aa878f2addafa34bef3e43da305a37b5e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,443$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.56 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed No | 1c | 1,422$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…f9f2backed Yes | 46c | 845.85$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.11 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 48c | 630.84$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.19 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 54c | 550.24$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.13 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 46c | 399.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…8204backed No | 51c | 290.66$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 33c | 260.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked No | 37c | 215.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 54c | 178.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 48c | 165.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 53c | 160.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked No | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked No | 55c | 143.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked No | 54c | 139.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 47c | 107.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…3fcdbacked No | 24c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…b299backed No | 58c | 102.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 42c | 96.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…efe6backed Yes | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 46c | 55.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked No | 57c | 47.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed No | 30c | 47.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…5174backed Yes | 68c | 42.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Yes | 28c | 42.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.45per pick | 44cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…9f5bbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.