MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f8a47fc7fbd3a92ce4e3981dbd3db5af7a5d04cc73cc3db6d5362cf2be440cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Over | 57c | 47,581$26,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,607.5 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 40,112$19,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,256.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Over | 53c | 11,611$6,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,472.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 51c | 8,770$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,429.93 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked Over | 52c | 8,532$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,085.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 6,127$3,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,063.53 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Under | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 1,039$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.34 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 49c | 828.5$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.61 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 52c | 763.57$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Over | 39c | 740.28$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.16 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 730.24$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.12 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 50c | 729.71$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.61 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 47c | 650.73$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.69 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 500.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 49c | 422.83$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.83 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 50c | 419.97$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 49c | 407.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 45c | 377.91$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 27c | 216.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 61c | 164.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed Under | 50c | 114.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 45c | 103.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 73c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 48c | 84.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Over | 61c | 65.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…1ce4backed Under | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Over | 64c | 46.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…0fc0backed Under | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Under | 46c | 37.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Over | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0405…2491backed Under | 52c | 30.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 49c | 29.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 59c | 27.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…fb09backed Under | 65c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…8d79backed Under | 52c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49b…a5d4backed Under | 67c | 22.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe95…860ebacked Under | 67c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…dce9backed Under | 66c | 20.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…c3e3backed Under | 66c | 20.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +525%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…b695backed Under | 66c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…5c16backed Under | 66c | 20.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ed…3123backed Under | 66c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…dc38backed Under | 63c | 19.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2981…bfa3backed Under | 67c | 19.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe469…0e8abacked Under | 52c | 19.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…1a88backed Under | 65c | 19.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…962dbacked Under | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…458ebacked Under | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…171bbacked Under | 65c | 19.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2215…cc7bbacked Under | 66c | 19.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…b0b4backed Under | 66c | 18.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…fd01backed Under | 67c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…b5e9backed Under | 72c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde40…130fbacked Under | 66c | 16.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51d…514cbacked Under | 66c | 16.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…5f3ebacked Under | 66c | 15.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…6a5cbacked Under | 66c | 15.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.