MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x594ce5f75bee34a0c3a9d186687bc0d6e3d9536cf7ff6ec58712a5752b14e5dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 7,867$5,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,405.91 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 7,012$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,206.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…5993backed Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 2,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 2,018$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.3 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 799.99$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.31 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 668.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 17c | 233.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 200.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 198$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 180.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 125.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 125.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 118.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…1ed0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 90.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…cf49backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 83.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 72.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 67.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 61.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +103%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 57.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…1ce4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.