MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b4978b84d0a944768e153be096aa8001fad8345af3bfb4d5d24885de5c3a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Under | 80c | 17,381$13,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.74 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…f684backed Over | 8c | 15,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 0c | 11,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…42f1backed Over | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 25c | 2,000$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 42c | 812.87$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.58 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 25c | 558.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.04 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…c697backed Under | 23c | 199.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Under | 14c | 131$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Under | 17c | 100.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…0f19backed Over | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…ba00backed Under | 62c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…9998backed Over | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.