MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d763d080c73d4e6111cf68b1ece40b197430e5b97340f703d0b649035b7a841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 45c | 3,600$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,325$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.31 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 1,614$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.42 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 47c | 995.98$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed No | 55c | 440.4$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 52c | 406.94$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.33 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 262.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…467dbacked No | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed No | 53c | 131.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 53c | 128$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 45c | 102.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 49c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 53c | 73.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 72c | 71.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 47c | 62.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…c1f2backed No | 49c | 30.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +381.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.