MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb522a12308cae4208b67bce170866ffa0f1d17a71d0420965bc9a89ec24c70dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 56c | 2,578$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.56 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,420$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 1,389$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 1,314$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.67 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 1,061$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.55 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 962.33$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 950.82$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 796$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 675$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 46c | 620.07$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.34 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 494.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 489.44$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 252.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 249.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 50c | 216.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 42c | 216$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 197.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 172.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 172.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 63c | 159.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 150.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 136.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 44c | 107.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 56c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 99.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…c722backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 44c | 87.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 57c | 79.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 77.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 38c | 57.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 55c | 49.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 62c | 49.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 48.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 33.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 45c | 24.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 19.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…6a5dbacked Under | 58c | 18.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.