MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9439d94cbd96910caa956d72d6708b95f8226063200c4cadd5f313cd5ce844a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 17,356$8,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,157.37 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 10,270$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,159.24 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 9,747$4,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,864.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 53c | 7,506$3,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,527.74 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 1,919$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.76 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 53c | 1,268$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.9 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 1,184$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 1,088$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.36 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 935.24$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 686.19$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.37 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 651.98$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 48c | 638.14$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.31 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 53c | 582$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 518.91$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 53c | 518.33$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.48 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 454.95$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 43c | 407.28$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.15 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 57c | 403.34$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 55c | 394.96$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.84 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 53c | 390$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Under | 54c | 327.07$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 277.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 47c | 219.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 180.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 93.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…b299backed Over | 54c | 88.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 48c | 84.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 70.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 42c | 56.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 50c | 51.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 54c | 51.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 54c | 51.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 40.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fb13backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 54c | 32.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 46c | 31.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…a781backed Over | 76c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 53c | 25.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 44c | 23.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 23.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 57c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 53c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…0fa8backed Over | 79c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.