MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a5f06d2ae46a69d10bfd6c8fd645126cbfb62c3d796d09e27df10b6a3876bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 2,035$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.18 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 80c | 1,427$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.96 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 870$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 722$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 678.49$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.39 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 594.8$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 483.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 457$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 447.27$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 439.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 15c | 363.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 320.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Seattle Mariners | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 219.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 161.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 105.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 94.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 81.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Seattle Mariners | 24c | 56.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 54.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 54.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.