MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3088ca02ab6b648cccd10d04ce2e6f8e8c5aa2c8bd906761a5359552c97330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 10,697$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 8,705$3,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,188.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 0c | 8,457$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Miami Marlins | 0c | 8,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 6,869$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.77 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 5,457$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 4,054$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.85 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 3,911$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.35 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 23c | 1,733$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.54 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 1,379$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 914.95$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Miami Marlins | 4c | 900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 603.16$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.39 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 593.19$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 449$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 434.54$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 426.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 338.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.61 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 319$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 291.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Miami Marlins | 20c | 252.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 238.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 225.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 220.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 182.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 152$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 152$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 122.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 97.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 91.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 62.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 60.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 57.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 50.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 48.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 24.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2554…6019backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 18.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.