WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311e7a05e4d53151d1e45e09871c514210696627576ef083db47053de07ef1ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof PortlandFire, Las Vegas Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked PortlandFire | 16c | 10,857$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.98 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed PortlandFire | 9c | 8,819$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.44 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire | 6c | 4,253$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.81 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 6c | 2,713$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed PortlandFire | 6c | 2,595$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 16c | 2,522$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.33 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…4325backed PortlandFire | 16c | 2,345$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed PortlandFire | 2c | 1,919$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed PortlandFire | 13c | 1,801$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.16 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed PortlandFire | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked PortlandFire | 4c | 999.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked PortlandFire | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed PortlandFire | 15c | 776.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed PortlandFire | 8c | 748.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked PortlandFire | 7c | 740$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked PortlandFire | 5c | 713$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 9c | 708.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked PortlandFire | 8c | 664.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 646.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked PortlandFire | 8c | 639.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f06…3e1bbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 585.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed PortlandFire | 14c | 575.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked PortlandFire | 14c | 541.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed PortlandFire | 6c | 532.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed PortlandFire | 5c | 514.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed PortlandFire | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed PortlandFire | 4c | 391.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PortlandFire | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558d…180ebacked PortlandFire | 15c | 326.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555b…474cbacked PortlandFire | 17c | 302.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked PortlandFire | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked PortlandFire | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…22a4backed PortlandFire | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed PortlandFire | 12c | 249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked PortlandFire | 7c | 232.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed PortlandFire | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 166 | 33.1%55 W · 111 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed PortlandFire | 5c | 217.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…44b1backed PortlandFire | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 178.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed PortlandFire | 8c | 174.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed PortlandFire | 9c | 168.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed PortlandFire | 8c | 155.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed PortlandFire | 15c | 155.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked PortlandFire | 13c | 138$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed PortlandFire | 15c | 131.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked PortlandFire | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed PortlandFire | 13c | 127.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…26eebacked PortlandFire | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed PortlandFire | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…d9ebbacked PortlandFire | 21c | 94.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…60f8backed PortlandFire | 15c | 88.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…08f7backed PortlandFire | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Las Vegas Aces | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Las Vegas Aces | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Acesthis page
- Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.