WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1946f730f87a1baf8b13af26d653c9cb6b6bea53fae96adf0d4357c24b6b77ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 4,076$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.49 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 3,046$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.96 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 2,652$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.29 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.95 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 1,604$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.91 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b9e3backed PortlandFire | 49c | 950$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 49c | 735.41$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 699$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.52 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed PortlandFire | 15c | 237.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 215.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed PortlandFire | 51c | 208.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed PortlandFire | 47c | 182.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 151.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PortlandFire | 43c | 141.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 137.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Las Vegas Aces | 80c | 128$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 50c | 127.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 40c | 127.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 47c | 119.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed PortlandFire | 16c | 114.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 99.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 95.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed PortlandFire | 50c | 95.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 92.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed PortlandFire | 47c | 83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…5c3abacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 75.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383b…11b8backed PortlandFire | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PortlandFire | 49c | 65.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed PortlandFire | 29c | 65.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed PortlandFire | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 57.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 57.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked PortlandFire | 44c | 45.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked PortlandFire | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 40.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 40.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 33.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked PortlandFire | 36c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked PortlandFire | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed PortlandFire | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6aa5backed PortlandFire | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Las Vegas Aces | 79c | 31.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed PortlandFire | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 21.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Las Vegas Aces | 75c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Las Vegas Aces | 80c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)this page
- Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.