WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43e1d0f5e19666425c3a8aee6ead282b7246de028150c683c9081b99cdc96f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 2,725$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.13 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 2,300$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 63c | 1,705$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.1 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed PortlandFire | 50c | 1,549$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.32 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed PortlandFire | 45c | 1,500$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.5 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 40c | 1,427$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.91 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,081$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.13 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 954$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 946$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.92 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed PortlandFire | 53c | 727.43$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 677$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.82 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed PortlandFire | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 486.01$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.11 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed PortlandFire | 30c | 332.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…0bf3backed PortlandFire | 53c | 261.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…de1abacked PortlandFire | 52c | 246.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed PortlandFire | 44c | 227.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 203.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed PortlandFire | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed PortlandFire | 47c | 199.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 198.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…3a41backed PortlandFire | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed PortlandFire | 52c | 185.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 142.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed PortlandFire | 29c | 118.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 90.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PortlandFire | 54c | 77.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed PortlandFire | 44c | 64.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 61.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…680bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 38.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 66c | 36.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed PortlandFire | 49c | 33.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Las Vegas Aces | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked PortlandFire | 44c | 32.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed PortlandFire | 53c | 32.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PortlandFire | 37c | 28.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces | 63c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 20.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed PortlandFire | 51c | 20.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed PortlandFire | 55c | 19.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)this page
- Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.