WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ead671e5df8e2db083079d2d97f4302f3e3450537d3e1507e1c517a6b37b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 4,658$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.01 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 2,334$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.52 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 2,295$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.99 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 51c | 1,929$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.34 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 890.4$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.37 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 74c | 816.32$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 73c | 708.73$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 656.7$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.84 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 48c | 622.04$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.16 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 570.57$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Under | 30c | 543$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 457.82$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.83 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 428.34$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 57c | 401.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.27 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 61c | 395.69$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 50c | 374$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.18 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 48c | 350$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 338.13$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 67c | 322.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 316.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 37c | 313.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.68 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 55c | 272$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 51c | 260$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 66c | 234.85$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 228.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 39c | 227$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 220.02$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed Under | 53c | 188.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 56c | 165$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 56c | 165$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Under | 45c | 159.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 48c | 147$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 47c | 127.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 61c | 110.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 104.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 39c | 101.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 44c | 99.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 48c | 96.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed Under | 53c | 94.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 62c | 79.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 39c | 78.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 39c | 73.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 39c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…f153backed Over | 69c | 66.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…f0cfbacked Over | 45c | 57.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…6047backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 51.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 56c | 48.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Over | 39c | 40.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 48c | 39.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 39c | 37.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Over | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Under | 57c | 30.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 39c | 29.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5this page
- Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.