WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d073134c793328712b4996dcf1e170e85f5ee3ed77c34912f77206b1b353b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 55c | 2,195$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.37 | 390 | 45.9%179 W · 211 L | -15.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 2,030$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.19 | 389 | 40.9%159 W · 230 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 1,216$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.31 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 454 | 15.6%71 W · 383 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Under | 49c | 995.02$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.56 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 52c | 811.11$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.11 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 414.3$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.58 | 564 | 55.1%311 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 395.91$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 216.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 190.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 60c | 185.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Over | 51c | 149.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 60c | 122$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 61c | 117.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -16.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 68c | 112.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 276 | 49.6%137 W · 139 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 420 | 46.7%196 W · 224 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 15c | 86.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 70.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 333 | 47.7%159 W · 174 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 65.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 394 | 50.5%199 W · 195 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 58.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 34c | 52.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 50.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 48.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 511 | 47.2%241 W · 270 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb750…67efbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 54c | 41.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Under | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked Over | 47c | 31.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 60c | 31.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 49c | 31.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 25.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Under | 53c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked Under | 55c | 21.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Under | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5this page
- Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 179.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.