TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals47c12,358$5,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,822.7210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c10,000$5,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,579.848451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c6,811$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,494.024,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates51c3,396$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.2612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals51c2,497$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.958,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals51c2,103$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.355,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates49c2,072$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.5620648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals52c1,477$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.116,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Washington Nationals51c1,087$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.3755653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Washington Nationals51c963.35$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.311,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals51c846.99$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.496,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c828.98$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.311,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals55c798.01$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43563943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals51c620.44$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.422,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Washington Nationals51c371.84$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6479255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Washington Nationals52c364.63$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.611,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Washington Nationals52c332.02$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8597050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1294549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c299.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9958652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates49c168.18$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.772,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates51c159.48$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Pittsburgh Pirates50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505040%20 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals57c95.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals49c85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.654,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Washington Nationals61c82.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4416250.6%82 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c76.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.815,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals34c70.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals51c64.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.152,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates49c64.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.082,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Washington Nationals64c61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0453950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Washington Nationals51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals51c59.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.411,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a8…df77backed Washington Nationals51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305257.7%30 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c58.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.265251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals51c43.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates43c38.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0321852.8%115 W · 103 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa95c…1b63backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals48c38.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.462,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c35.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.31,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8552852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates42c34.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.284,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed Washington Nationals60c34.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7410252%53 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c33.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4646952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea94…0b53backed Washington Nationals51c28.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4662…1d65backed Washington Nationals51c22.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.654736.2%17 W · 30 L-9.0wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-35.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Washington Nationals47c22.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6450954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4462…bfdfbacked Washington Nationals54c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.343625%9 W · 27 L-11.8wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.2%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Washington Nationals52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Washington Nationals52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.418347%86 W · 97 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.