MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c480dad6fa7323764dad2e7df5ba8a194580df95b4aedfd62bc4ee619a88019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 12,358$5,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,822.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 10,000$5,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579.8 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 6,811$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 3,396$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 2,497$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 2,103$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 2,072$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.56 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,477$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 1,087$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.37 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 963.35$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.31 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 846.99$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 828.98$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 798.01$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 620.44$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.42 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 371.84$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 364.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.61 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 332.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 168.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 159.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 95.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 82.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 76.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 70.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 64.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 59.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 58.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 38.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…1b63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 35.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 34.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 34.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 33.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…0b53backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 28.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -11.8wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.