South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf165ca623747e9a0fe85ccf456647e9a4b20068ef2ddc680e26e2a9643af5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 2,866$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.77 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 2,845$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 53c | 1,691$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.89 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 40c | 1,457$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.99 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 1,198$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 69c | 1,186$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Over | 27c | 1,019$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 36c | 842.68$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.72 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Under | 68c | 689.06$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 52c | 676$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.08 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 41c | 583.51$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.24 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 344.28$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…676ebacked Under | 73c | 330.31$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…0314backed Under | 73c | 313.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 27c | 302.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Under | 69c | 292$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 55c | 250$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -9.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…99d0backed Under | 73c | 222.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 219.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 53c | 204$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 194.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Under | 73c | 153.07$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 32c | 151.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd23…f7eabacked Over | 21c | 147.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Over | 28c | 147.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 66c | 146.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 72c | 132.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 69c | 127.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 72c | 124.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 120.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 25c | 118.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 64c | 107.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 28c | 81.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 63c | 78.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 28c | 73.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 69c | 71.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 28c | 63.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 73c | 48.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Over | 33c | 44.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 31c | 44.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…93efbacked Under | 69c | 43.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 72c | 42.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 62c | 41.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…6486backed Over | 31c | 40.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 36c | 31.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…4d4abacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…0920backed Under | 69c | 29.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…c4e8backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc9…7a80backed Under | 69c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Under | 65c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 62c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 61c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb42…f3bbbacked Under | 70c | 18.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…dbd2backed Under | 74c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 72c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)EC Vitória won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.