MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7167d1a2989a6f41a183a4a1ca91001a3c023bee7c0250574f9f632227546de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 19,006$8,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,374.19 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 15,322$8,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,479.41 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 8,705$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.32 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 4,139$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.96 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…8fd4backed Under | 47c | 3,211$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.12 | 2,064 | 39.2%810 W · 1,254 L | -29.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,961$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.67 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 1,646$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.5 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 1,372$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.84 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 53c | 1,297$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.77 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 53c | 1,283$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.02 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 47c | 814.4$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.77 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 719$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.02 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 570.66$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.56 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 45c | 385.15$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 40c | 245.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 882 | 53.7%474 W · 408 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 42c | 222.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 672 | 48.5%326 W · 346 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 1,448 | 50%724 W · 724 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 56c | 161.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 133$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Over | 53c | 117.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 789 | 50.1%395 W · 394 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 59c | 106.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 522 | 57.3%299 W · 223 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 311 | 47.9%149 W · 162 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 435 | 49.2%214 W · 221 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 514 | 40.3%207 W · 307 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 59c | 71.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1,255 | 58.3%732 W · 523 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 44c | 50.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 53c | 46.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 858 | 54.4%467 W · 391 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 258 | 55%142 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 44c | 37.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 360 | 48.9%176 W · 184 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 59c | 35.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 450 | 57.6%259 W · 191 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 59c | 35.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 596 | 58.9%351 W · 245 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 929 | 46.1%428 W · 501 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 56c | 29.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 29.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,839 | 53.9%992 W · 847 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 46c | 29.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 59c | 28.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,039 | 58.3%606 W · 433 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 410 | 48.5%199 W · 211 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 47c | 21.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.