MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1892e44dda005c11332cb87aa45cdffe3652af510d2e840d8a6a8aa135bda21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 980.46$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 495.77$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 79c | 452.27$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…cc19backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 110.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 64.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 53.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…10f8backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 36.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.