MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9c5de2d1629aedc047be91b825ab636f2affb3b22a1b6d63772806dffbf538d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 49,448$23,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,688.03 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 29,117$14,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,289.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 6,449$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,130.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 51c | 2,485$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.63 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 46c | 2,372$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.62 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,232$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,173$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 1,064$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 1,029$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 893$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.58 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 60c | 795.2$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 758$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.03 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 599.24$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.63 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…cc48backed Over | 49c | 485$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.35 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 364.25$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 48c | 211.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 205$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 49c | 136.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 55c | 118.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 113.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 54c | 63.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 53c | 51.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 47.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 51c | 43.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 50c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 60c | 38.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 51c | 34.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…a393backed Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 44c | 28.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 64c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.