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MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,800 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over36c11,338$4,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,256.3511,05451.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L+137.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under64c9,416$6,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,058.9311,60652.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L+210.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over38c2,793$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.198,25146.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under41c2,410$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.464,42845.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L+87.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over30c1,710$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.1812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd2…14c2backed Under58c1,207$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006246.8%29 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under59c1,111$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.4987753%465 W · 412 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under71c903.09$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.723,10748.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under43c823$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.893,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+147.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb68…4ef3backed Over44c774.09$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.495940.7%24 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over46c668.4$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.1165949.2%324 W · 335 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under56c511.2$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.271,67149.1%820 W · 851 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under17c460$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.588,65452.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L+506.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over37c428.97$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.251,84850.3%930 W · 918 L-4.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under56c387.95$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.257,04650.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L+2.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under68c359.24$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.572,14851.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L+50.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under43c303.6$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.551,96041.4%812 W · 1,148 L-25.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under57c295.67$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.531,43649.3%708 W · 728 L-6.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over43c240.42$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.363,85742.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L+3.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Over41c216$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.4434653.2%184 W · 162 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over30c213.33$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3388253.7%474 W · 408 L+40.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over42c170.92$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.872,34949.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over39c153.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.441,23644.3%547 W · 689 L-30.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over42c138.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.318,45147.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L+81.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over48c131.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6971652.4%375 W · 341 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under63c127.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6355951.9%290 W · 269 L+1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Over30c127$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.930340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under48c125.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.045,84843.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L-189.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over44c119.66$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0116950.9%86 W · 83 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under54c89.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.354,52448.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L-42.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Over53c75.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2346444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over46c64.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141,22454%661 W · 563 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Under58c64.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22,06439.2%810 W · 1,254 L-29.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under54c60.56$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.768053.2%362 W · 318 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.52,42349.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L+20.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under37c57.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.251,97053.1%1,047 W · 923 L+45.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under43c55.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71,22150%610 W · 611 L+5.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Under43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.655536.4%20 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over31c54.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6842651.6%220 W · 206 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Over46c52.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1714351.7%74 W · 69 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Under55c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.410553.3%56 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3618…b2b2backed Under26c48.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5110938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under56c47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.111,43851%734 W · 704 L-18.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6016…1ab5backed Over44c46.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.246050%30 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Over39c45.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.217455.4%41 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over43c44.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.33,01848%1,448 W · 1,570 L+14.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x724b…8cd9backed Over31c41.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.881435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed Over42c39.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.971735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over42c34.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.85,51750.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L+26.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d74…96b8backed Over44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.094959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Over45c33.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.354057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under56c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.922,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Under64c29.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6125855%142 W · 116 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b4…6855backed Under69c28.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.914149.6%70 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Under55c28.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under64c27.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.711,29256.8%734 W · 558 L+31.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over51c22.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9592556.3%521 W · 404 L+30.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.