MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24837f9199f93fb06e447c6060e1f3b91657dd2ad94626bc67483abd129993f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 11,338$4,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,256.35 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 9,416$6,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,058.93 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 2,793$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.19 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 41c | 2,410$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.46 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 1,710$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 58c | 1,207$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 59c | 1,111$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.49 | 877 | 53%465 W · 412 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 71c | 903.09$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.72 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 43c | 823$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.89 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 44c | 774.09$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.49 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 46c | 668.4$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.11 | 659 | 49.2%324 W · 335 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 56c | 511.2$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.27 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 17c | 460$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 37c | 428.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 387.95$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.25 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 68c | 359.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.57 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 43c | 303.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 1,960 | 41.4%812 W · 1,148 L | -25.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 295.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 240.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 41c | 216$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 30c | 213.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 882 | 53.7%474 W · 408 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 170.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 39c | 153.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 138.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 131.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 63c | 127.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 30c | 127$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 125.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 44c | 119.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 89.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 53c | 75.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 64.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 58c | 64.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,064 | 39.2%810 W · 1,254 L | -29.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 54c | 60.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 57.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 43c | 55.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,221 | 50%610 W · 611 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Under | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 31c | 54.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 426 | 51.6%220 W · 206 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Under | 26c | 48.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 44c | 46.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 39c | 45.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…8cd9backed Over | 31c | 41.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Over | 42c | 39.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 34.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 45c | 33.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 64c | 29.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 258 | 55%142 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 55c | 28.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 64c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 51c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 925 | 56.3%521 W · 404 L | +30.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.