MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6aa6051b660386336a932f03dc52b229ec2252cf9059cd5ac59e94b86143259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 14,423$9,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,065.88 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 12,760$4,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,044.29 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 2,120$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.77 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 2,032$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.08 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 1,334$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.38 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 909.09$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.43 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 825$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.25 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 810.77$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.02 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 630$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 487.48$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.12 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 7c | 427$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 7c | 323$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 6c | 312$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 201.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 192.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 173.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 133.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 110.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 89.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 81.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 42.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.