Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c8409051ae28c9c058ff07cefd018b62b5182273624177888aa04baeb943961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elise Mertensof Elise Mertens, Cristina Bucsa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,066 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Cristina Bucsa | 19c | 20,000$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.48 | 341 | 36.4%124 W · 217 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cristina Bucsa | 0c | 4,341$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Cristina Bucsa | 35c | 4,000$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.53 | 1,437 | 28.5%409 W · 1,028 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Elise Mertens | 65c | 3,246$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.1 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Elise Mertens | 67c | 2,835$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.69 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Elise Mertens | 79c | 2,835$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.37 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Elise Mertens | 64c | 2,031$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.24 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Cristina Bucsa | 34c | 1,786$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Cristina Bucsa | 11c | 1,636$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…5930backed Cristina Bucsa | 17c | 1,579$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 1,485$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.21 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…bf3cbacked Cristina Bucsa | 10c | 999.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 900$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…fad4backed Cristina Bucsa | 34c | 875.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Cristina Bucsa | 2c | 748$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,207 | 8%96 W · 1,111 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Elise Mertens | 65c | 733.96$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.67 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 673.25$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.37 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Cristina Bucsa | 35c | 631.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Elise Mertens | 80c | 596$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 588$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.04 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 496.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.96 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Elise Mertens | 75c | 453.52$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Elise Mertens | 65c | 359$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Cristina Bucsa | 8c | 357.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Cristina Bucsa | 32c | 353.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Elise Mertens | 66c | 300.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cristina Bucsa | 5c | 287.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0016backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Elise Mertens | 67c | 199$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 193.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 192$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Elise Mertens | 68c | 181.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Elise Mertens | 65c | 154.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Elise Mertens | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…284abacked Cristina Bucsa | 17c | 148.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Elise Mertens | 66c | 140.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Cristina Bucsa | 18c | 138.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Cristina Bucsa | 18c | 132.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Elise Mertens | 65c | 106.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Cristina Bucsa | 19c | 100.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Elise Mertens | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…4d7abacked Cristina Bucsa | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Elise Mertens | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Elise Mertens | 72c | 98.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cristina Bucsa | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 976 | 44.6%435 W · 541 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Elise Mertens | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Elise Mertens | 66c | 74.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Elise Mertens | 68c | 73.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Elise Mertens | 79c | 66.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Elise Mertens | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cristina Bucsa | 34c | 65.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 60.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Cristina Bucsa | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cristina Bucsa | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cristina Bucsa | 23c | 53.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 51.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Elise Mertens | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Elise Mertens | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 245 | 63.3%155 W · 90 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…d3f4backed Cristina Bucsa | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Elise Mertens | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 382 | 68.1%260 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Elise Mertens | 66c | 36.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,754 | 49.1%862 W · 892 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Elise Mertens | 79c | 35.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Elise Mertens | 64c | 35.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Cristina Bucsa | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Cristina Bucsa | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Elise Mertens | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Elise Mertens | 76c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Elise Mertens | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Elise Mertens | 66c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.