NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ac0b8505e59dfccadddcbc1edc097b6b82c4e3af8d5da021d2ea2eab9c0063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Canadiens, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Canadiens | 39c | 1,826$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.91 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Sharks | 61c | 625$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sharks | 60c | 382.6$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 61c | 260$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Canadiens | 39c | 201.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Sharks | 61c | 171.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Sharks | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Sharks | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sharks | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Canadiens | 39c | 128.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Sharks | 61c | 117.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canadiens | 39c | 115.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Sharks | 61c | 113.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Sharks | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Sharks | 62c | 109.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Sharks | 60c | 107.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Sharks | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Canadiens | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sharks | 61c | 72.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Canadiens | 39c | 72.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Canadiens | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Canadiens | 40c | 58.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Canadiens | 39c | 57.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Sharks | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Sharks | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sharks | 61c | 54.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Canadiens | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Sharks | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sharks | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sharks | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Canadiens | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sharks | 57c | 30.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sharks | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Canadiens | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Sharks | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Sharks | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Sharks | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sharks | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. CanadiensSharks won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.