TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sharks vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sharksof Sharks, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,803,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,803,615 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 651 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Sharks42c400,000$168,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,999.8719848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Sharks51c254,655$130,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,634.081,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Sharks41c189,125$76,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,363.5967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Sharks67c84,466$56,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,873.6840351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Sharks42c71,500$30,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,47048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Canadiens58c66,161$38,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,373.483844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens58c60,570$35,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,100.931,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Canadiens59c60,000$35,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,40022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Canadiens59c48,455$28,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,515.8161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Canadiens58c47,373$27,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,476.1751452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Canadiens58c47,225$27,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,390.2836748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Canadiens58c42,231$24,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,4946147.5%29 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Canadiens52c32,137$16,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,869.2927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Canadiens58c30,000$17,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,40014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf195…8057backed Sharks40c28,400$11,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,039.845352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Canadiens57c20,625$11,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,756.4651550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Canadiens58c18,032$10,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,480966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Sharks56c16,000$8,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1202552%13 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Canadiens61c15,670$9,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,555.595149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Canadiens58c14,738$8,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,548.0418641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Canadiens58c14,070$8,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,160.443743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Canadiens58c13,793$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.9940356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d5…be83backed Canadiens59c12,199$7,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,197.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Canadiens58c11,331$6,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,571.985639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Sharks41c10,050$4,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,950.3726058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Canadiens58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Canadiens58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.9511553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens58c9,724$5,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,670.181,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Canadiens58c9,470$5,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,492.512748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Canadiens58c9,440$5,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,475.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Canadiens56c9,348$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,234.8615949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Canadiens33c8,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6405046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canadiens59c7,500$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Canadiens58c7,200$4,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1762536%9 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens61c7,000$4,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2701,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Canadiens59c6,642$3,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,902.2422747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3355…14e0backed Canadiens60c6,250$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,750250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Canadiens61c5,720$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.24365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Sharks41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,95027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Sharks68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6003354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9008845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Canadiens59c4,980$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.1712047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Sharks42c4,762$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.985250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Canadiens59c4,746$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8003351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Canadiens59c4,500$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65589547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Canadiens61c4,444$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.7391945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Canadiens59c4,271$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5203450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Sharks35c4,131$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,694.6839344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Canadiens58c4,029$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.6547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Sharks68c4,022$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.951,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Canadiens58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens47c3,662$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.262,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Canadiens58c3,448$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Sharks68c3,150$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0086456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Canadiens70c3,137$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.8585464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Canadiens57c2,731$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.16538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Sharks43c2,693$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.4317057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens58c2,691$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.582,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Canadiens61c2,600$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5865350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Canadiens59c2,542$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Canadiens59c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4751,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Canadiens58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45084953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x579b…4a2bbacked Canadiens59c2,458$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Sharks49c2,392$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.9126657.1%152 W · 114 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Canadiens58c2,360$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.87737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Sharks52c2,255$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.5530259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canadiens55c2,193$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Sharks62c2,157$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.6995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Canadiens60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Canadiens22c1,949$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.3660337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens59c1,948$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.41,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Sharks38c1,878$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.071,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Sharks58c1,845$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.1489355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens57c1,843$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.3283149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…10f1backed Canadiens58c1,834$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0641258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens48c1,734$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.831,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x431c…12ecbacked Canadiens59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Sharks42c1,650$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95714654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Canadiens60c1,600$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens46c1,548$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.392,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Canadiens59c1,528$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.7366552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Canadiens60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens59c1,400$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82670249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens60c1,398$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8392,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Canadiens72c1,382$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Canadiens30c1,340$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015236.2%55 W · 97 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Canadiens58c1,197$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.2621549.3%106 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Canadiens59c1,195$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7056550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Sharks42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.4814940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Canadiens59c1,177$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.0245751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Sharks68c1,172$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.383661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Sharks41c1,118$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.791653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Sharks39c1,111$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.7189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Canadiens59c1,090$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.0112653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Sharks68c1,088$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.23850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Canadiens60c1,088$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.6986549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Canadiens57c1,053$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Canadiens58c1,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Sharks38c1,010$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.1914954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.