NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4cf5e7e14ced8094c278be04d378715fa1447dacdd0c1d328bdbb32ddd2a166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,981 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under | 47c | 12,629$5,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,655.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 7,345$3,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,886.81 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.12 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 46c | 4,501$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.59 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.82 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 2,843$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.56 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 2,029$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.95 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 48c | 1,692$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 54c | 1,150$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Under | 46c | 1,141$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 55c | 912$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.27 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 46c | 780.32$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.37 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 698.21$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.06 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 51c | 507.39$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.72 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 441.51$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 359.78$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.68 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 44c | 323.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.27 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 56c | 318$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 257.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 253.09$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 54c | 213.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 211.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Under | 47c | 202$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Over | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 18c | 127.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 57c | 122.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 80c | 82.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 56c | 79.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 43c | 61.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…d4ecbacked Under | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…fd2dbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 80c | 43.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Over | 50c | 39.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 53c | 39.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 60c | 36.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 61c | 36.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 36.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 57c | 32.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 79c | 13.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. CanadiensSharks won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.