NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc3baeaec75c9d25e4988e025a11d9dffe2fd9ec4de691f609f6557b7850ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 34c | 751$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.61 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 67c | 604.52$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 572.2$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 66c | 402.11$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.72 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef82…f8c9backed Over | 64c | 293$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009f…32febacked Under | 36c | 282$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…76c6backed Over | 64c | 279$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4750…e7d6backed Over | 64c | 270$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…d1e5backed Over | 65c | 267$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…ba0bbacked Over | 65c | 266$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…144abacked Over | 64c | 264$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 35c | 249.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…ef42backed Under | 36c | 241$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…0afcbacked Over | 64c | 234$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8f…0797backed Over | 65c | 224$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…43f0backed Over | 64c | 223$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…7be9backed Over | 65c | 209$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef9…ea05backed Under | 36c | 204$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…4404backed Under | 35c | 195$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…6e97backed Under | 36c | 192$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…b6fbbacked Under | 36c | 189$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070b…468fbacked Under | 36c | 186$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…578ebacked Under | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e12…061bbacked Under | 35c | 177$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…1fdebacked Over | 65c | 175$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65b…b7dcbacked Under | 35c | 167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…f1edbacked Under | 35c | 161$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…a5d6backed Over | 64c | 159$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 33c | 149.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…9b1abacked Under | 36c | 149$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…dbb9backed Under | 35c | 137$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…39edbacked Under | 35c | 124$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…d39fbacked Under | 35c | 109$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b10…0473backed Under | 35c | 106$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…2955backed Under | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 65c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…8fb2backed Over | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Sharks vs. CanadiensSharks won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.