MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9017e3ffdf12de4121d037acf22ecc9ce1c2b0aaa86b75fca1a9af339b6f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Athletics, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Athletics | 37c | 4,056$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 1,143$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.15 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Athletics | 32c | 866.6$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.69 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 38c | 770$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 554.86$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 545.82$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 37c | 249.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 240.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 38c | 181$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Athletics | 36c | 161.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 31c | 160.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 154.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 107.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Athletics | 34c | 100.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 99.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Athletics | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Athletics | 32c | 85.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 37c | 81.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Athletics | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 71.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Athletics | 38c | 67.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Athletics | 36c | 51.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Athletics | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Athletics | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 37c | 27.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…d9b6backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.