MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0aba32d4de8eaa508b5c8af0179d49d8a648abc1cfc64d41346e44a8d7becb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 52c | 14,047$7,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,734.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 49c | 4,579$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.24 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 48c | 3,530$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.44 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 48c | 2,140$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 49c | 2,091$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.54 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 49c | 650.46$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.01 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed Yes | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 49c | 399.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 49c | 394.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 47c | 332.63$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.29 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 316$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 50c | 64.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 49c | 57.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 51.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…3e27backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.