MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5295ec793cd0561c4dbcc98857c50535bba119ceae6928916667e37840dd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 18,000$9,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,537.54 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 36c | 12,020$4,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,296.85 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 10,529$6,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,792.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 8,893$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,713.29 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Under | 47c | 6,105$2,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.49 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 2,578$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.16 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 2,069$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.07 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 1,585$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 66c | 1,520$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.8 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 1,487$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.12 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 592.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.02 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 41c | 415$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 324.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 51c | 294.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 254.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 42c | 207.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 47c | 173$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 130.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 126.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…aa9dbacked Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 94 | 24.5%23 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 49c | 106.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…0dfcbacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 70.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 41c | 68.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 52c | 51.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Over | 53c | 30.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.