MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97b6f95301b751ed8daac910d418cd90e6ee3ecdf0dfc6b79c81d19008ccd950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Chicago White Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 2,400$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 72c | 2,167$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 74c | 975$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 483.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 479.74$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 74c | 208.66$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 139.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…e1b9backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 126.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Chicago White Sox | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 87.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Athletics | 60c | 82.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 65c | 64.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 51.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 47.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb350…bfb8backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Athletics | 68c | 39.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 76c | 33.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Athletics | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Athletics | 56c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Athletics | 55c | 23.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.