MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d2cd1bfc4ee1c55b2b66ef84b5a21e7f9f086c3c37fb0044f699638ae3a297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 68c | 217,144$147,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,674.22 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 32c | 149,869$47,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,958.07 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 41,837$13,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,387.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 16,241$5,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,368.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 6,622$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 60c | 413.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 40c | 399.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 34c | 342.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 39c | 249.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 60c | 190$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 33c | 173.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 165.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 161.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 32c | 159.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 44c | 157.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 155.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 40c | 149.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 138.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 107.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 99.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 95.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 81.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 35c | 71.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 59.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 34c | 56.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 32c | 54.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 32c | 51.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 37c | 41.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Over | 35c | 36.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Over | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 43c | 26.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.