TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Browns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Browns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Bills45c65,791$29,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,998.379554.7%52 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Browns58c33,546$19,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,407.182441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Browns51c18,182$9,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,342.477552%39 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Browns55c18,000$9,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,984.913040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Bills47c14,658$6,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,734.4325956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Browns47c12,744$5,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,932.813737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Browns57c6,688$3,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,819.214850%74 W · 74 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Browns0c5,112$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.411128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Browns59c4,168$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.8517350.9%88 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Browns54c3,964$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.0231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Bills45c2,897$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.3922550.7%114 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Bills42c2,769$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.743154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Bills47c2,161$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.023458.8%20 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+34.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c85…9634backed Bills47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Bills47c1,900$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0083652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Bills72c1,855$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.355066%33 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Bills46c1,842$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed Browns60c1,635$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+111.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Bills43c1,575$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.875949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Browns58c1,570$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.372850%14 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Browns57c1,533$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.6410353.4%55 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bills51c1,511$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.0510858.3%63 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Browns59c1,361$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.3439447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Browns55c1,253$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.422944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bills40c1,199$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.24148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Bills47c1,192$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Bills42c1,186$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.881752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Bills41c1,174$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.916238.7%24 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Browns54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5402147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5046…c617backed Browns47c925.41$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Browns59c839.2$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.139145.1%41 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Browns57c780$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.64542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe857…ec19backed Bills45c662.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Bills47c659$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.972572%18 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Browns19c605$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5510452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Bills42c589$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Bills45c588.01$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Browns57c526.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe742…d999backed Bills58c514.48$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+119.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3131…91cdbacked Bills36c508.69$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Browns57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.52147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Browns50c496.06$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.482839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Browns56c491.34$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.155350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Bills43c455$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.11050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Bills44c450.52$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.292231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Bills48c436.9$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.173050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Bills44c411.67$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.515646.4%26 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Browns57c408.27$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3413756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Browns58c400.05$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.036251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Browns24c375$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.132729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bills40c374.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.6114366.4%95 W · 48 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Bills44c318.18$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Browns56c318.18$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1837350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Bills70c316.41$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Browns18c305.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.071540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Browns58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1741844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb781…9ba9backed Bills40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1804845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5735…9f18backed Bills41c300$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178875%6 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+96%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Bills37c296.91$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Browns44c272.32$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.342634.6%9 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Browns45c268.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.21952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Bills41c267$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.531050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Browns56c262.17$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8235848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Bills40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Bills40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Browns20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Browns57c250$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Browns19c240$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.42556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Bills46c219.78$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.681952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…a0fdbacked Browns34c208.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.021650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Browns58c189.12$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.433857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17f7…4f7cbacked Bills47c181.79$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Bills47c170.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.212429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Browns62c168$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.735244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ff…f058backed Browns30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Browns58c152$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.168747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Bills51c151.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.633066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Browns59c145.37$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.772944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Bills71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.854551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Browns58c133.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.491838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Bills37c133.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Browns43c128.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9927348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c67…a0e0backed Bills42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.051471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Bills42c119$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+54.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b2…14c2backed Bills44c114.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x991e…3190backed Bills48c112.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.913941%16 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Bills40c101.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.691553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Bills32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6828436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Browns60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed Bills41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+67.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Browns20c95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+102.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Bills45c93.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211d…9154backed Bills44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Browns60c88.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Browns46c85.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Bills40c84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.412151.2%62 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Bills48c82.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.481560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+40.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Browns61c82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0222349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Bills71c79.21$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.311163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0972…82aabacked Bills49c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.