NFL · resolved market
Spread: CLE (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c28da520a5d3fd48711d56f43b283c47d0df72845ec4a4600c64c779d94a62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BUFof CLE, BUF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb56d…d621backed BUF | 52c | 3,773$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CLE | 48c | 2,444$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.3 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed CLE | 49c | 980.39$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.39 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked BUF | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed CLE | 52c | 864$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.92 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked CLE | 49c | 714$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed BUF | 46c | 648.43$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.15 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked BUF | 48c | 617.15$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.92 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked CLE | 50c | 298$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked CLE | 54c | 247$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CLE | 49c | 192$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed CLE | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked CLE | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed CLE | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked CLE | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked CLE | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked BUF | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked BUF | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CLE (-2.5)this page
- BUF vs. CLE: O/U 36.5Over won
- BUF vs. CLE: O/U 37.5Over won
- BUF vs. CLE: O/U 38.5Under won
- BUF vs. CLE: O/U 39.5Under won
- Bills vs. BrownsBills won
- Spread: CLE (-1.5)BUF won
- Spread: CLE (-3.5)BUF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.