UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x949fe6ca7a01e9175beec6aaeed4823f65c4641900d1a834d934071e7608b3f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,813 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a4f…3690backed No | 5c | 6,275$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 58c | 1,648$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.24 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6446…ec28backed No | 43c | 1,339$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 59c | 605.98$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.45 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked No | 41c | 572.69$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ff…54febacked Yes | 66c | 442.97$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 61c | 365.61$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a36…dedabacked No | 40c | 353.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 62c | 260$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 44c | 224$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 61c | 200.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 39c | 191.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed No | 39c | 188.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 60c | 171.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed No | 39c | 170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 60c | 169.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed No | 40c | 151.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 12c | 91.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…597bbacked No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked Yes | 70c | 77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…aab2backed Yes | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 46c | 68.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Yes | 65c | 67.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…55e7backed No | 40c | 62.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 30c | 59.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 47.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 40c | 38.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed No | 39c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed No | 39c | 25.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Yes | 64c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)Raul Rosas Jr. won
- Will Raul Rosas Jr. win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Rob Font win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.