UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78cd946b39f57966b6591a04e4aa5be2da28974aa017b4276280a8f19cafc7f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,459 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Over | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed Under | 33c | 464.2$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58a…8983backed Under | 30c | 267$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb257…2492backed Over | 70c | 238$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ae…d849backed Over | 70c | 194$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…fc2abacked Under | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 65c | 112.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Under | 40c | 75.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…c7adbacked Under | 27c | 55.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Over | 60c | 49.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 68c | 26.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)Raul Rosas Jr. won
- Will Raul Rosas Jr. win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Rob Font win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.