UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd33dcb3adcded39db9168661cd72e4c21055ab3e3124483751f371dc91bbf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,819 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Over | 58c | 1,216$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.15 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 42c | 1,046$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 60c | 988.66$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.83 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Under | 39c | 715.22$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 41c | 611.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 590.77$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.53 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1539…738abacked Over | 61c | 338.25$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 57c | 288.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Over | 58c | 288$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 41c | 224.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…f5bbbacked Under | 41c | 215.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Under | 42c | 200.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Over | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…e3c3backed Over | 57c | 157.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 42c | 86.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 57c | 72.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…4c18backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 47c | 42.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)Kevin Vallejos won
- Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Kevin Vallejos win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.