UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d9bce195ff95fc55a04ad045daa5255c137d746cb45862bef91ad73e82ac1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,198 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 39c | 4,263$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.48 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 61c | 3,629$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.9 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 55c | 1,235$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.37 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Yes | 44c | 1,139$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 63c | 1,044$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.03 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed No | 65c | 769.94$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.43 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 36c | 758.57$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.09 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0b…c5f8backed No | 66c | 752.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 29c | 679.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 36c | 631.11$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 35c | 399.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 67c | 313.53$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…4638backed No | 67c | 306.48$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed No | 68c | 250$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 67c | 231.1$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 61c | 208.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 38c | 178.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 66c | 117.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 63c | 84.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 78.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…c85cbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 31c | 66.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Yes | 33c | 59.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…5bb8backed No | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 66c | 37.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed No | 68c | 36.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 64c | 32.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…8845backed No | 66c | 30.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed No | 66c | 24.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…9d94backed No | 63c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…5af8backed No | 65c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…56e6backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)Kevin Vallejos won
- Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Kevin Vallejos win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.