UFC · resolved market
Will Kevin Vallejos win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x352540cf5a183f15b8617a87580287202865c55df15d01e1615b5f266ce5cc5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,819 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 50c | 1,506$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.66 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 48c | 1,209$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.38 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 51c | 911.59$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.28 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 53c | 666.25$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.25 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 49c | 644.62$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.29 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 52c | 545.25$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.53 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 47c | 518.15$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 50c | 397.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.7 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 372.39$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 51c | 186.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…8030backed Yes | 50c | 164.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…4638backed No | 51c | 109.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 46c | 102.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 51c | 101.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…c85cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 67c | 96.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…220bbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa961…e9e0backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 51c | 87.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…8c66backed Yes | 49c | 77.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 51c | 63.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 44c | 61.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 60c | 46.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…d55cbacked Yes | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…cdcbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…f1b7backed Yes | 48c | 37.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…50d6backed Yes | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…dbf8backed No | 64c | 23.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed No | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…0314backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Vallejos win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)Kevin Vallejos won
- Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.