UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c22e7afead9cebd0b967ffceaa824002685bf638b8ee03abc04d47b22050d69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 1,643$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.63 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 1,338$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.98 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…e04fbacked Under | 48c | 1,262$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Over | 53c | 1,146$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a2c4backed Under | 49c | 1,030$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…d96dbacked Under | 46c | 972$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Under | 47c | 948.94$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 539$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.23 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 46c | 521.02$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 48c | 494.21$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed Under | 43c | 464.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 54c | 463.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 52c | 415.38$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…0971backed Under | 50c | 362$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…30f0backed Under | 50c | 343$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…52a0backed Over | 50c | 305$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…00d8backed Over | 50c | 289$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1481backed Under | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…5b50backed Under | 50c | 218$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…8716backed Under | 50c | 216$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Under | 48c | 212.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…20c6backed Over | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Under | 45c | 202.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…84e5backed Over | 50c | 201$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…2b32backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…9348backed Over | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 47c | 190$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 54c | 171.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…18cfbacked Over | 50c | 171$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962f…85e4backed Over | 52c | 162.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Over | 55c | 160.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…4567backed Under | 50c | 148$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…6b99backed Under | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…fe3abacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 85.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Under | 48c | 75.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…f5bbbacked Under | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 45c | 60.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…a14cbacked Under | 48c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 43c | 26.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)Kevin Vallejos won
- Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Kevin Vallejos win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.