TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UMBC Retrieversof Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks, UMBC Retrievers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,290 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead1…c76abacked UMBC Retrievers75c6,267$4,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.31,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked UMBC Retrievers74c5,658$4,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.9639454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c4,998$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.4961652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks19c3,838$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.918954.5%103 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c3,000$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72455532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed UMBC Retrievers77c2,246$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.5889850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c2,233$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.5134343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c2,221$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.852,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks23c2,203$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.882,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked UMBC Retrievers76c1,899$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.94454.5%24 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fc…7162backed UMBC Retrievers75c1,822$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks15c1,781$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.1615453.9%83 W · 71 L+16.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked UMBC Retrievers80c1,669$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6714151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks6c1,505$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6781528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c1,419$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.961,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c1,327$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.6327947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ec…8533backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks4c1,092$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.93100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked UMBC Retrievers74c817.76$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6140755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee76…e67abacked UMBC Retrievers76c741.7$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7711362.8%71 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…f201backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks3c730.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.97119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-86.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks5c715.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0425829.5%76 W · 182 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed UMBC Retrievers75c665.6$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.42850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks4c653.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.241,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c621.01$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.04333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c601.92$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.52356.5%13 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+61.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks2c562.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c549.43$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3329337.2%109 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c520.83$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked UMBC Retrievers74c451.32$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.341,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c450$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.524432%78 W · 166 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab5…ff12backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c397.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.348130.9%25 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked UMBC Retrievers73c378.66$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.510259.8%61 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c374.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.175752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c340.03$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.051,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c312.88$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3525837.6%97 W · 161 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9450…d9e6backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c300.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.252536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dca…a7acbacked UMBC Retrievers74c297.98$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4725254.8%138 W · 114 L-15.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks27c297.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.441,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed UMBC Retrievers76c296.71$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.249157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed UMBC Retrievers78c296.32$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.283,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UMBC Retrievers76c284.52$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked UMBC Retrievers76c272.29$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.353151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks23c262.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.441838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks35c220.08$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3437947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed UMBC Retrievers80c198.88$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c195$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.757448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c167.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9625544.3%113 W · 142 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe71c…79aebacked UMBC Retrievers75c155.74$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.94580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks14c152.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.281,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.533445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks26c143.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6412141.3%50 W · 71 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf72…b4a6backed UMBC Retrievers74c135.38$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.759470.2%66 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6196…1a64backed UMBC Retrievers75c132.46$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.11540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc4e…5ee6backed UMBC Retrievers75c132.46$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.112369.6%16 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c01…0436backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c123.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.68450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff7…4176backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c115.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks16c112.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.430945.6%141 W · 168 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed UMBC Retrievers72c112$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.138345.4%174 W · 209 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed UMBC Retrievers76c108.42$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1211243.8%49 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x411b…9924backed UMBC Retrievers73c99.96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed UMBC Retrievers77c99.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8634947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd12…a7b8backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c99.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8518644.6%83 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebb…c2dfbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks27c99.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c95.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9917241.3%71 W · 101 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c95.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9330649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…26f2backed UMBC Retrievers76c74.22$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.811080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+53.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c71.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…4cf7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks27c69.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.771936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked UMBC Retrievers74c67.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.574,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…d46bbacked UMBC Retrievers75c66.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.569348.4%45 W · 48 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed UMBC Retrievers76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7982846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68c…c8b1backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c62.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks17c61.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd598…c67cbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c59.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca06…23d0backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks27c55.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked UMBC Retrievers76c52.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5540252.7%212 W · 190 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed UMBC Retrievers79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.514461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks21c49.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6739742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe23…e72bbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks24c45.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bb…cee9backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102015%3 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x68c4…d7dfbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017634.7%61 W · 115 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…6287backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c34…2055backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025230.6%77 W · 175 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed UMBC Retrievers75c35.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.916255.6%90 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed UMBC Retrievers74c30.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84866.7%32 W · 16 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed UMBC Retrievers75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.510464.4%67 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c54…98cdbacked UMBC Retrievers74c21.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.58955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick74cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed UMBC Retrievers73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.443053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ebb…1e6bbacked UMBC Retrievers75c18.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.724953.1%26 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6232…85e5backed UMBC Retrievers76c15.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.725972.9%43 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d25…81eebacked UMBC Retrievers74c14.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.871338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed UMBC Retrievers75c13.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.361838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.