Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e2e0f874573313565b2653eedc55fd9e4f2bd24a8ebd588531ff51cafed2ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMBC Retrieversof UMBC Retrievers, Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.99 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 1,240$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.75 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 48c | 1,154$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.75 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 479.77$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.68 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 434.17$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.4 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked UMBC Retrievers | 53c | 336.66$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 52c | 305$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 279.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…3ec1backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 221.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UMBC Retrievers | 54c | 218.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UMBC Retrievers | 48c | 95.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 39c | 68.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…2c44backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 52c | 59.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UMBC Retrievers | 73c | 50.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 40.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed UMBC Retrievers | 53c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed UMBC Retrievers | 51c | 25.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 51c | 23.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed UMBC Retrievers | 74c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-7.5)this page
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-8.5)UMBC Retrievers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.