TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Tennessee Volunteers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$358,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$374,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Tennessee Volunteers52c151,081$78,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,565.146246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3f…3446backed Michigan Wolverines48c134,071$64,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,843.945367.9%36 W · 17 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Tennessee Volunteers51c63,022$31,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,931.1824351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Michigan Wolverines48c61,186$29,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,824.8517643.8%77 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3144…f17ebacked Tennessee Volunteers53c16,759$8,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,921.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Michigan Wolverines46c11,712$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.6817742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan Wolverines46c11,580$5,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,253.022,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Michigan Wolverines46c11,100$5,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,994.14650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Michigan Wolverines47c10,824$5,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,784.4474152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Tennessee Volunteers54c9,740$5,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,253.911936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Michigan Wolverines69c8,436$5,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.2723149.8%115 W · 116 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Michigan Wolverines46c8,248$3,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,425.274051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tennessee Volunteers52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,160560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan Wolverines46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,24090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan Wolverines46c5,738$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.134,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6969…d1b9backed Tennessee Volunteers52c5,501$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.47650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Tennessee Volunteers53c5,100$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70315858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan Wolverines46c4,580$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.2827755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Michigan Wolverines47c3,769$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.75,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…1eebbacked Michigan Wolverines48c3,717$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.961040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+104.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7a…c0abbacked Michigan Wolverines47c2,820$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.541250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Michigan Wolverines47c2,222$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.773650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Tennessee Volunteers53c2,104$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.192119%4 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Michigan Wolverines46c1,983$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.614257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Michigan Wolverines47c1,780$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.5826254.2%142 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Tennessee Volunteers57c1,739$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.4214930.2%45 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tennessee Volunteers50c1,653$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.3725145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Michigan Wolverines46c1,384$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.8119147.6%91 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Tennessee Volunteers52c1,319$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.157938%30 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Tennessee Volunteers53c1,200$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6366336.5%23 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78cc…a081backed Tennessee Volunteers55c1,114$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Michigan Wolverines47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…1953backed Tennessee Volunteers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6db…00f4backed Tennessee Volunteers52c962$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Tennessee Volunteers53c778.06$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.371850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Michigan Wolverines47c776.15$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.361080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+78.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Michigan Wolverines47c700$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3715556.4%31 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Michigan Wolverines46c644.12$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.829352.7%49 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe905…0efbbacked Michigan Wolverines48c510.52$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Michigan Wolverines47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26537246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Tennessee Volunteers52c476.38$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.723842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a58…f9d8backed Michigan Wolverines47c388.48$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.89475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+117.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5157…942bbacked Tennessee Volunteers52c380.95$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.092236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Michigan Wolverines48c342.81$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.262748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Michigan Wolverines47c316.37$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.6727045.2%122 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Tennessee Volunteers42c238.51$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.059254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Michigan Wolverines46c215.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.375048%24 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Michigan Wolverines47c210.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.781,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Michigan Wolverines47c210.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7883350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Michigan Wolverines48c206.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.397955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Tennessee Volunteers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Michigan Wolverines47c198.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0838837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Michigan Wolverines47c191.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.43860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Tennessee Volunteers56c177.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.144055%22 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd45…f2aabacked Michigan Wolverines48c169.67$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+122.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Tennessee Volunteers46c161.75$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3523941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Tennessee Volunteers54c146.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.310045%45 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Michigan Wolverines47c145.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8333445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Michigan Wolverines50c116.6$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Michigan Wolverines46c114$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.569154.9%50 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Michigan Wolverines46c107.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1953635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Michigan Wolverines47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…b921backed Michigan Wolverines48c103.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.697146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Tennessee Volunteers53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508549.4%42 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Tennessee Volunteers52c79.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5913147.3%62 W · 69 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x843c…cfaebacked Tennessee Volunteers53c74.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.652347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tennessee Volunteers55c69.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.21,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Michigan Wolverines43c65.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.394346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ef…cdd9backed Tennessee Volunteers53c65.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.693542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ef93backed Michigan Wolverines47c60.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan Wolverines46c51.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8463551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Michigan Wolverines53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Michigan Wolverines46c49.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.772454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Tennessee Volunteers54c45.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4910…b2b8backed Michigan Wolverines48c41.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.482142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Tennessee Volunteers49c40.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8217446.6%81 W · 93 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Tennessee Volunteers53c37.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Michigan Wolverines47c36.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4317551.4%90 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf463…4cc1backed Michigan Wolverines48c34.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Michigan Wolverines46c32.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4658652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Michigan Wolverines48c30.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.115745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef92…f133backed Tennessee Volunteers52c30.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Michigan Wolverines53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13928.2%11 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Michigan Wolverines43c29.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9519454.6%106 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Michigan Wolverines53c29.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.649725.8%25 W · 72 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Michigan Wolverines53c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.697443.2%32 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba00…747cbacked Michigan Wolverines48c26.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.961741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Michigan Wolverines46c25.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6829650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Tennessee Volunteers54c22.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Michigan Wolverines50c21.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.774946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Michigan Wolverines69c16.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.093554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.