TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Spurs, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,489,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,523,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,489,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 552 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a55…f9bebacked Knicks50c391,198$195,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195,599450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs50c351,540$174,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174,047.7110944%48 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a6…627bbacked Knicks51c211,245$107,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,509.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Spurs50c130,000$65,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,40014538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs51c98,788$49,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,921.3185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Spurs50c80,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,00020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Knicks50c79,081$39,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,668.48439.3%33 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spurs51c66,711$34,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,022.517251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs50c64,292$32,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,278.6264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks51c60,000$30,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,637.3525352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Spurs49c56,107$27,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,728.594546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Knicks49c48,455$23,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,687.975940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Knicks49c40,200$19,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,502.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spurs50c39,900$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0009945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Knicks49c39,030$19,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,905.0659347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Spurs48c34,814$16,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,710.785154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Knicks50c22,636$11,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,218.9635744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Knicks50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00011654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Knicks49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,20011333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,80010248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Knicks51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.8311447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Spurs49c18,330$8,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,981.631,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed Knicks50c17,150$8,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,493.923740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x439c…8a28backed Knicks50c15,694$7,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,787.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Spurs50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5002642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Knicks52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20020155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks46c13,686$6,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,390.392,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Spurs50c13,500$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,75015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ba…0a52backed Spurs49c13,000$6,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3702832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Knicks54c12,917$6,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,954.891,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Knicks50c12,500$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2502166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1788…0994backed Spurs50c11,221$5,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,610.741225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.7249244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Knicks50c9,400$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,700944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Knicks50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00025651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Spurs48c8,000$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,839.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Knicks52c7,679$3,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.831,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Spurs50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5004856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Knicks49c6,794$3,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.021,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked Knicks50c6,175$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.0711946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Spurs55c6,136$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,35038143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Knicks50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0007950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…57e7backed Knicks50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Knicks50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Spurs49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Spurs50c5,748$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,873.818532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Knicks50c5,424$2,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,712.0743438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs49c5,319$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.484,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Knicks50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50023742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs50c4,962$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.161,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Knicks51c4,902$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.961369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+62.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb68…4ef3backed Knicks51c4,783$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,343.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Spurs51c4,706$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4007156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Knicks49c4,358$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.831,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Knicks49c4,334$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.365657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Knicks51c4,059$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.822045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Spurs50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00089853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a9…4090backed Knicks51c3,894$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.31540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs49c3,865$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.5755251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Knicks51c3,707$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.437852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Knicks52c3,370$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.6956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Knicks38c3,008$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.866152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa0…09b4backed Knicks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Knicks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Knicks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Knicks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50016050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Spurs49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4701,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Knicks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.9965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Knicks50c2,846$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.4386641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed Knicks51c2,843$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.893557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs50c2,535$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.51,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed Spurs51c2,525$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28880%0 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Knicks45c2,452$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.682,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Spurs50c2,290$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.8159140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Spurs50c2,200$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1006541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Spurs50c2,193$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.513946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks50c2,164$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.994,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Spurs51c2,142$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08313435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72de…53ffbacked Knicks52c2,075$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.43850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Knicks50c2,040$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Spurs50c2,030$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.231764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Spurs51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0203743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00011759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Knicks50c2,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Spurs46c1,946$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.5552150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Spurs48c1,720$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.5556043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Spurs50c1,700$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8503953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spurs51c1,635$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.191,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x503a…8322backed Spurs62c1,619$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.785558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Knicks49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.99850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e25…043ebacked Knicks48c1,443$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.113363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Spurs50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005160.8%31 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cf3…4e0dbacked Spurs51c1,334$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a2…293fbacked Spurs50c1,327$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.35961%36 W · 23 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd8f…761dbacked Spurs51c1,246$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7e3…22cbbacked Spurs55c1,200$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.532653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Spurs51c1,150$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.56045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.