TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,113 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0c99…0c88backed Heat44c755.34$332 inWon+$422.992,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed 76ers56c754.02$422 inLost-$421.662,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Heat60c147.42$88 inWon+$58.9517547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed 76ers20c100$20 inLost-$2052951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed 76ers77c90$69 inLost-$69.37051.4%36 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b1…69d2backed 76ers50c80$40 inLost-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Heat23c59.36$14 inWon+$45.712,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Heat80c24.76$20 inWon+$4.951,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Heat80c15.41$12 inWon+$3.0887744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.