NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Kraken
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e01cc6dd09360363b90968284d615140c18b510c29ee2a5c5775430feaceefc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,087,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,087,039 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Lightning | 63c | 343,235$215,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,429.24 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Kraken | 38c | 125,500$47,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,489.99 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Kraken | 37c | 119,998$44,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,399.19 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 62c | 62,822$39,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,756.19 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kraken | 37c | 62,532$23,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,136.83 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kraken | 38c | 60,000$22,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,799.96 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…e244backed Kraken | 37c | 50,751$18,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,778.05 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Kraken | 38c | 43,228$16,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,426.81 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kraken | 37c | 40,714$15,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,064.2 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Kraken | 38c | 40,000$15,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,200 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kraken | 38c | 39,167$14,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,883.39 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning | 62c | 37,691$23,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,138.22 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lightning | 62c | 20,261$12,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,699.29 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Kraken | 30c | 16,887$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Lightning | 62c | 16,215$10,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,161.67 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Kraken | 18c | 15,311$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.02 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…050bbacked Lightning | 63c | 14,921$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,520.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 62c | 13,713$8,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,216.32 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken | 37c | 13,000$4,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,840 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 62c | 12,940$8,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.37 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kraken | 38c | 12,500$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,749.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning | 62c | 12,301$7,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.42 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…8667backed Lightning | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 63c | 9,959$6,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,688.11 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 65c | 9,534$6,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.07 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Kraken | 25c | 9,533$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.23 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…edf1backed Lightning | 63c | 9,094$5,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 75c | 8,039$5,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.71 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Kraken | 37c | 8,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 260 | 58.8%153 W · 107 L | +17.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning | 62c | 8,000$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6fadbacked Kraken | 0c | 7,960$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Kraken | 38c | 7,895$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 71c | 7,480$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.51 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…8536backed Lightning | 62c | 7,173$4,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Lightning | 62c | 6,451$4,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.3 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Kraken | 10c | 6,177$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.66 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Lightning | 62c | 6,000$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.99 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Lightning | 63c | 4,841$3,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.26 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…981bbacked Lightning | 62c | 4,809$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…a137backed Kraken | 16c | 4,251$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.83 | 302 | 59.6%180 W · 122 L | +31.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Lightning | 62c | 3,540$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.23 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Lightning | 62c | 3,500$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Kraken | 38c | 3,456$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.28 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lightning | 62c | 3,456$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.24 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kraken | 4c | 3,403$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Kraken | 37c | 3,388$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.11 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…391cbacked Kraken | 18c | 3,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lightning | 62c | 3,189$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.83 | 457 | 51.6%236 W · 221 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning | 63c | 3,175$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.6 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Kraken | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Kraken | 24c | 2,981$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.66 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Kraken | 13c | 2,734$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Kraken | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning | 63c | 2,500$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lightning | 62c | 2,427$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.12 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning | 63c | 2,400$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888 | 278 | 50.4%140 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Kraken | 38c | 2,342$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.42 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Lightning | 61c | 2,240$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.59 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Kraken | 9c | 2,238$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 256 | 35.9%92 W · 164 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Kraken | 22c | 2,222$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.8 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 61c | 2,117$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.01 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lightning | 62c | 2,110$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.8 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Lightning | 62c | 2,012$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Lightning | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Kraken | 38c | 1,850$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Kraken | 37c | 1,666$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.97 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 61c | 1,635$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.37 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning | 62c | 1,510$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.8 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Kraken | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Lightning | 63c | 1,452$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.39 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Kraken | 38c | 1,452$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +58%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lightning | 62c | 1,415$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.79 | 318 | 51.9%165 W · 153 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning | 79c | 1,387$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.62 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Lightning | 63c | 1,350$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked Lightning | 63c | 1,349$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…7190backed Kraken | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Lightning | 63c | 1,229$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.82 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 63c | 1,162$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.89 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Kraken | 14c | 1,085$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…df85backed Kraken | 31c | 1,050$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.91 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Lightning | 63c | 1,047$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.39 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…7730backed Kraken | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…ea7abacked Kraken | 17c | 1,040$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.71 | 233 | 48.5%113 W · 120 L | +16.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c564backed Kraken | 5c | 1,035$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Kraken | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 0.8%2 W · 240 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Kraken | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Lightning | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Lightning | 62c | 959$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.42 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Kraken | 9c | 830.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Kraken | 6c | 821.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Kraken | 37c | 800$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Lightning | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 369 | 48%177 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Kraken | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Lightning | 79c | 758.85$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Krakenthis page
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.