TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Kraken

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Kraken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,087,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,087,039 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Lightning63c343,235$215,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127,429.2419848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Kraken38c125,500$47,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,489.9948545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Kraken37c119,998$44,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,399.1967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning62c62,822$39,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,756.1947951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kraken37c62,532$23,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,136.8340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Kraken38c60,000$22,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,799.9610050%50 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb859…e244backed Kraken37c50,751$18,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,778.0511052.7%58 W · 52 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Kraken38c43,228$16,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,426.811,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kraken37c40,714$15,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,064.21,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Kraken38c40,000$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,20014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kraken38c39,167$14,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,883.3948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning62c37,691$23,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,138.2261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lightning62c20,261$12,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,699.2951452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Kraken30c16,887$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Lightning62c16,215$10,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,161.677949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Kraken18c15,311$2,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.0232744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab8…050bbacked Lightning63c14,921$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,520.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning62c13,713$8,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,216.321,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken37c13,000$4,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8401,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning62c12,940$8,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,857.371,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Kraken38c12,500$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.9951045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning62c12,301$7,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,674.4259450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…8667backed Lightning62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8001770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning63c9,959$6,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,688.111,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning65c9,534$6,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,314.072,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Kraken25c9,533$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.2327448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1c…edf1backed Lightning63c9,094$5,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning75c8,039$5,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.711,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Kraken37c8,000$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,96026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning62c8,000$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,04039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x335c…6fadbacked Kraken0c7,960$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Kraken38c7,895$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning71c7,480$5,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.512,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5bc…8536backed Lightning62c7,173$4,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Lightning62c6,451$4,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.38544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Kraken10c6,177$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.6628847.2%136 W · 152 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Lightning62c6,000$3,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.9930552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Lightning63c4,841$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.2637754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f0…981bbacked Lightning62c4,809$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Kraken16c4,251$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8330259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Lightning62c3,540$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.2319353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Lightning62c3,500$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,33029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kraken38c3,456$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.2875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lightning62c3,456$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.241,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kraken4c3,403$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.162,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Kraken37c3,388$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.1110850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Kraken18c3,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5765959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lightning62c3,189$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.8345751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning63c3,175$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.631550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Kraken38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Kraken24c2,981$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.6642254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Kraken13c2,734$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.331225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Kraken38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning63c2,500$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lightning62c2,427$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.121,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning63c2,400$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88827850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Kraken38c2,342$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.4260337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Lightning61c2,240$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.5914954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Kraken9c2,238$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7525635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Kraken22c2,222$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.88056.3%45 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning61c2,117$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.011,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Lightning62c2,110$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Lightning62c2,012$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.563850%19 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Lightning63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7403259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Kraken38c1,850$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70344551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Kraken37c1,666$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.9789249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning61c1,635$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.372,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.385250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning62c1,510$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.854047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Kraken38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Lightning63c1,452$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.396550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Kraken38c1,452$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.621060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+58%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Lightning62c1,415$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.7931851.9%165 W · 153 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning79c1,387$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.6299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Lightning63c1,350$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.520655.3%114 W · 92 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Lightning63c1,349$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725c…7190backed Kraken1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Lightning63c1,229$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.825242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lightning63c1,162$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.8966552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Kraken14c1,085$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2459852.3%313 W · 285 L+34.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb145…df85backed Kraken31c1,050$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.915658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Lightning63c1,047$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.3926551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Kraken24c1,042$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250270%0 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a3…ea7abacked Kraken17c1,040$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7123348.5%113 W · 120 L+16.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c564backed Kraken5c1,035$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Kraken1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Kraken38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3807149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Lightning61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3909157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Lightning62c959$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.4224654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Kraken9c830.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.727334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Kraken6c821.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Kraken37c800$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29612646.8%59 W · 67 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning63c800$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29622352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Lightning63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6536948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Kraken38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30031848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed Lightning79c758.85$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.851560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.