NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05d3b2e1b21be302d970e1b08c4668dbee52255f5afef6cfd9f6bc804d358154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,394 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 2c | 4,284$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 1,408$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 22c | 1,003$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.13 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 37c | 908.01$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.62 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 66c | 768$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.5 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 37c | 310.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.82 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 44c | 252$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…196abacked Under | 74c | 238$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5e…9c4dbacked Under | 74c | 233$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…78cabacked Under | 74c | 227$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…571dbacked Over | 26c | 185$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 170.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…8d88backed Over | 26c | 157$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…6b2fbacked Under | 74c | 141$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…3c06backed Under | 74c | 139$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e5…83d7backed Over | 26c | 136$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…6cb9backed Over | 26c | 123$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 45c | 110.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 61c | 94.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…6a04backed Over | 26c | 93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8066…82d5backed Over | 26c | 88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Under | 64c | 83.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 31c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…c802backed Over | 26c | 76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…0bebbacked Over | 26c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…da59backed Under | 60c | 59.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 51c | 58.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…e384backed Over | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Under | 54c | 40.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 40c | 40.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 59c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…9af8backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 19.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5this page
- Lightning vs. KrakenLightning won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.