NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8784ebc0f2c0c5ac7bb2529a0f6aceb5c21a4b230f434cb2628da048edabb284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,331 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 42c | 1,654$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.46 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kraken | 59c | 1,541$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.25 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Lightning | 72c | 1,449$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.63 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 41c | 1,111$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.49 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Kraken | 28c | 966$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.32 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Kraken | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Kraken | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Kraken | 59c | 371.11$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 40c | 248.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Kraken | 59c | 243.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Kraken | 59c | 220.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kraken | 59c | 219$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Lightning | 45c | 204.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Lightning | 50c | 203.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 46c | 188.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kraken | 34c | 174$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Kraken | 60c | 136.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kraken | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lightning | 40c | 117.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Kraken | 60c | 116.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Kraken | 60c | 112.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 61c | 94.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kraken | 59c | 91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Kraken | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Lightning | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 40c | 73.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning | 40c | 72.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Kraken | 50c | 72.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Lightning | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kraken | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Lightning | 64c | 62.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Lightning | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kraken | 48c | 59.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Kraken | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Lightning | 40c | 54.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Lightning | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Lightning | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Kraken | 33c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Lightning | 40c | 41.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lightning | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Kraken | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Kraken | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Kraken | 47c | 35.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 59c | 35.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Lightning | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Kraken | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Lightning | 42c | 33.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Kraken | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lightning | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Lightning | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kraken | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lightning | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…d7efbacked Kraken | 59c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. KrakenLightning won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.