NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57de47d28285df606a8afbf29a7eb1d73b207fbfffb0e6f1c8dcb2fa6ac3a3fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 55c | 7,727$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 2,347$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.85 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.1 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,217$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 56c | 1,881$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.29 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 15c | 1,270$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 514.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 80c | 483.21$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 55c | 481$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.55 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 45c | 471$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.05 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 79c | 440$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 48c | 425$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 50c | 406.22$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 385.68$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 45c | 363$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.65 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 264.18$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Under | 54c | 241.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 207.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 178.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Under | 28c | 178$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 176.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 47c | 107.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 106.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 105.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 90.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 64c | 89.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 46c | 76.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 78c | 63.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 69c | 45.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 53c | 41.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 40.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 46c | 35.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 46c | 29.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 37c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 58c | 25.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 56c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 45c | 24.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…397abacked Under | 57c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 47c | 21.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. KrakenLightning won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.