TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Anyone's Legendof Anyone's Legend, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$551,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$582,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $551,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4337…8882backed Top Esports8c82,389$6,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,349.251,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Anyone's Legend68c56,311$38,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,063.081,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Top Esports32c43,721$13,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,990.6721137.4%79 W · 132 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…fc4bbacked Top Esports14c35,521$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.532832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Anyone's Legend68c35,324$24,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,311.5459558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Top Esports9c27,964$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.783775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…1dc9backed Top Esports0c22,439$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Top Esports12c15,983$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.3921028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Top Esports31c11,874$3,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,680.8755955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked Top Esports13c9,900$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3324337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb03f…9429backed Top Esports32c9,869$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.2214324.5%35 W · 108 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2f0…2e3bbacked Top Esports10c9,626$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Top Esports32c9,018$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,885.7611645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Anyone's Legend68c7,500$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Top Esports32c6,190$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.864443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Top Esports8c6,032$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.7895041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Anyone's Legend68c5,555$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.631153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Top Esports32c5,398$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.2722624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Anyone's Legend68c5,336$3,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.6152848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Top Esports31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9977131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Anyone's Legend68c4,717$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.3535448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Top Esports3c4,551$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.082,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Anyone's Legend69c4,292$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.5316456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Top Esports11c4,039$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.8932442%136 W · 188 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Top Esports32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9749940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Anyone's Legend68c3,936$2,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.6751852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Top Esports5c3,564$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.782044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Top Esports32c3,467$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.3636034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Top Esports33c3,199$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.8116034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Anyone's Legend67c3,012$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.017652.6%40 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Anyone's Legend68c2,903$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.897954.4%43 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Anyone's Legend68c2,903$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.8922757.3%130 W · 97 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Top Esports32c2,894$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.0514346.9%67 W · 76 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Top Esports28c2,650$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7331,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Top Esports8c2,649$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.172245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Top Esports32c2,583$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.231,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Top Esports7c2,498$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.911,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Top Esports33c2,467$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.0648440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Top Esports9c2,261$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3873237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Top Esports33c2,151$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.0685836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Anyone's Legend69c2,146$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.2622547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Top Esports32c2,114$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.4954353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc20b…2fb8backed Top Esports32c2,096$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.757055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Top Esports13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26078050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Top Esports32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.991,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Top Esports32c1,996$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.857945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25a9…7076backed Top Esports32c1,971$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.7816844.6%75 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Top Esports32c1,897$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.0118347%86 W · 97 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Anyone's Legend68c1,875$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.0670456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Top Esports35c1,742$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8218829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Top Esports32c1,635$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.251,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Anyone's Legend68c1,604$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.381435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Top Esports8c1,590$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1745937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Top Esports18c1,583$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2917136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked Anyone's Legend66c1,503$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.425268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Top Esports11c1,500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16067549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Anyone's Legend68c1,480$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.7376953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc5…e3b9backed Anyone's Legend67c1,463$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.9715659.6%93 W · 63 L-13.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Anyone's Legend69c1,431$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.515427.8%15 W · 39 L-11.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-41.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Anyone's Legend69c1,382$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.435959.3%35 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3325…2ed3backed Top Esports5c1,373$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Top Esports8c1,300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10469539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Anyone's Legend68c1,167$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.5363458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Top Esports28c1,114$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.741,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0657…3a78backed Anyone's Legend70c1,051$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2422256.3%125 W · 97 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8112…4129backed Anyone's Legend74c1,045$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.7613065.4%85 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Top Esports32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32014060%84 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Top Esports32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Top Esports9c965.58$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.938837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Anyone's Legend72c961.52$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27021746.5%101 W · 116 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Top Esports33c942.38$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.9824750.6%125 W · 122 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Top Esports33c897.03$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.027833.3%26 W · 52 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Top Esports16c841.01$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.751,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Anyone's Legend68c798.26$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4443640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Anyone's Legend68c777.47$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.0454934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Top Esports32c747.92$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3341133.8%139 W · 272 L-28.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Top Esports32c746.38$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8420249%99 W · 103 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Anyone's Legend68c725.69$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.225070%35 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Anyone's Legend68c725.69$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2215754.8%86 W · 71 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Anyone's Legend69c715.34$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a14…045cbacked Top Esports33c700$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23126234.4%90 W · 172 L-21.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Top Esports33c699.95$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.986435.9%23 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Anyone's Legend67c699.95$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.981,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Top Esports33c690.71$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9484050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Top Esports32c621.77$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9756341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Anyone's Legend68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19244550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791f…060ebacked Top Esports9c598.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4126224.8%65 W · 197 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Top Esports33c598.02$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3539541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3d…5d2fbacked Top Esports34c580.32$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3124564.5%158 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Top Esports32c550$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1762,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Anyone's Legend69c541.28$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.814848.6%72 W · 76 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Top Esports32c536.89$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2844751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Top Esports32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16063646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Top Esports32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16029952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Top Esports29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14531661.7%195 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Anyone's Legend69c495.06$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9434945.6%159 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6633…dcfebacked Anyone's Legend68c493.47$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.915139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Top Esports33c493.37$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8117431%54 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd5…8f67backed Anyone's Legend68c490.07$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.4819251%98 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5782…8ce5backed Anyone's Legend69c421.01$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.517842.3%33 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.