TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Anyone's Legendof Anyone's Legend, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$191,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,546 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb784…61d0backed Top Esports36c21,781$7,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,840.8621137.4%79 W · 132 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Top Esports1c18,649$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.043775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Anyone's Legend63c15,111$9,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,591.051,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb03f…9429backed Top Esports5c9,999$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9414324.5%35 W · 108 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Anyone's Legend64c9,464$6,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.5717949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Anyone's Legend63c8,665$5,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.1421028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Top Esports37c6,853$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.5415153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Anyone's Legend64c5,544$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.942,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Top Esports45c5,371$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,416.9522624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Anyone's Legend74c5,299$3,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.421746.5%101 W · 116 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Top Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed Anyone's Legend62c3,185$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.992568%17 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Top Esports37c3,145$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.7918347%86 W · 97 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Anyone's Legend55c3,063$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.521,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…fc4bbacked Top Esports36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0802832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3325…2ed3backed Top Esports1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Anyone's Legend74c2,854$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.0573237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Top Esports37c2,809$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.151,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Top Esports37c2,678$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.6143151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Top Esports22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9961045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Top Esports50c2,317$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.2336943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Anyone's Legend63c2,137$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.5252848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Anyone's Legend64c2,019$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72752151.8%270 W · 251 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Top Esports35c1,976$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.811,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Top Esports38c1,938$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.6315829.1%46 W · 112 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1139…3a92backed Anyone's Legend55c1,791$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.032759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed4d…6a0bbacked Anyone's Legend64c1,758$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.949637.5%36 W · 60 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Top Esports37c1,746$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.1885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392f…2c07backed Anyone's Legend64c1,703$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.041080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Anyone's Legend62c1,600$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.9914158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Anyone's Legend64c1,548$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.1251160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Anyone's Legend66c1,335$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.068647.7%41 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Anyone's Legend62c1,253$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.129456.4%53 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Top Esports19c1,100$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21341347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Anyone's Legend50c1,085$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.4269539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Top Esports37c1,039$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.55147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-82.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Anyone's Legend80c1,013$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.6644550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5077…4956backed Top Esports18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18017751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Top Esports40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Top Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Top Esports37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Anyone's Legend57c923.15$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.0395041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Top Esports25c903.16$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.466947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Top Esports33c856$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4847533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Anyone's Legend64c803.9$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.42,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed Anyone's Legend63c782.55$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.548758.6%51 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f5…b1c6backed Anyone's Legend75c589.1$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.514774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.9wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed Top Esports33c559.97$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7977545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Top Esports12c546.74$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2624323%56 W · 187 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Top Esports35c539.98$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6964749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Top Esports40c535.97$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.721,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a7…9751backed Top Esports37c531.66$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.184557.8%26 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d83…272cbacked Anyone's Legend57c520.81$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2159241.9%248 W · 344 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e68…ee87backed Anyone's Legend60c511.61$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.0210650.9%54 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Top Esports36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Top Esports6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Top Esports35c499.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9929240.1%117 W · 175 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Top Esports36c485.25$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6986251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Top Esports37c479.94$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.581,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Top Esports16c472$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.451,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Anyone's Legend75c456$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11466843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Anyone's Legend55c448.15$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.871,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Anyone's Legend64c443.15$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.186144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Top Esports34c441.66$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.161,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Anyone's Legend62c439.25$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.9249549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked Top Esports4c418.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.474202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Anyone's Legend65c407.46$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6176955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Top Esports39c399.95$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9826453.8%142 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed Top Esports37c399.74$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.927432.5%89 W · 185 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Anyone's Legend65c355.67$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.32,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5252…a7cdbacked Top Esports10c340.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6664435.4%228 W · 416 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Anyone's Legend64c308.64$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.411,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Top Esports40c305.9$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3668443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe949…33bebacked Top Esports33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9912854.7%70 W · 58 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Top Esports37c295.8$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4555750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Top Esports19c289.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0254944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8165backed Top Esports37c279.81$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5334844.8%156 W · 192 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe342…1f86backed Top Esports38c270.78$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1917149.7%85 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4c…935ebacked Anyone's Legend67c266.81$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6613433.6%45 W · 89 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00cb…3992backed Top Esports37c266.49$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.62356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Top Esports38c259.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5955145%248 W · 303 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x866a…de80backed Top Esports8c251.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9122617.7%40 W · 186 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Top Esports39c241.87$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7217136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…526dbacked Anyone's Legend63c234.77$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8613544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed Anyone's Legend64c230.37$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4420645.6%94 W · 112 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0a…8b2fbacked Anyone's Legend67c227.8$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.179668.8%66 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Top Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Anyone's Legend63c199.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7468557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Top Esports38c196.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9464451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed Anyone's Legend58c188.29$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.288551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…d3f1backed Top Esports43c181.05$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.692751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Top Esports36c178.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3825960.2%156 W · 103 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Anyone's Legend60c178.4$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.134040%16 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a2…920cbacked Anyone's Legend60c164.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.711643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Anyone's Legend63c156.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9139663.4%251 W · 145 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Anyone's Legend63c156.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9115756.1%88 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked Anyone's Legend64c154.09$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.471457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf9…1e87backed Anyone's Legend65c151.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1150058.8%294 W · 206 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Top Esports18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2757222.7%130 W · 442 L-48.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Top Esports18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2759740.7%243 W · 354 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.